So while the numbers will show that Toronto has been the stronger team, this is a series where you’ll need to rely on raw handicapping in addition to what the numbers tell you. Tampa Bay has played a ton of hockey since the NHL returned from its Covid-hiatus nearly 20 months ago, so it’s not all that surprising that the Bolts did seem to pace themselves, especially since they basically had a playoff spot wrapped up in December. Toronto was the stronger 5-on-5 team, they had the better special teams throughout the season and Tampa Bay’s form did wane at times during the stretch run.īut overlook the Lightning at your own risk. There are a lot of reasons to believe in this Leafs core against the Lightning. There are ups and downs for every team across an 82-game season, but the Leafs were one of the circuit’s most consistent clubs in 2021-22. Not only did Toronto finish five points and eight goals ahead of the Bolts in the standings, but the Buds also finished inside the top-5 in terms of goals per game, expected goals rate, high-danger scoring chance percentage, and power-play percentage. No matter how you shake it, the Maple Leafs were a better team than the Lightning this season. And despite the noise surrounding this matchup - the Lightning’s prowess in the playoffs and Toronto’s inability to win a series, no matter the opponent - it’s hard to argue that the Buds aren’t deserving favorites in this matchup. The two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning will begin the postseason as a slight underdog against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more.
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